96 - A Gift of Leadership: Mobilizing Believers for Freedom
There is something decidedly Lincolnesque about President Volodymyr Zelensky. By striding to the central square of recaptured Izium yesterday, nine miles from the Russian line, he once again energized weary soldiers and battered citizens by showing up, hoisting the flag, and reminding all Ukrainians and his Western backers that the fight against Russia is less about territory than it is about over-arching values.
Ukraine may not be able to sustain its rapid advance and its re-conquest of 1000 square miles of what was Russian-usurped territory. Ukraine’s supply lines are now dangerously extended. Its supplies of ammunition may not last. And the Russians can still loft revenge cruise missiles against dams, power plants, water filtration equipment, and electrical installations – as they did yesterday. The Russians target civilian infrastructure, and hold hostage up to 20 percent of Ukraine’s generating capacity at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear complex.
We can celebrate the accomplishments of Zelensky and his generals and troops more easily than we should be optimistic. The war is still far from won. Indeed, Putin’s losses this week and the fact that petitions are circulating against him in St. Petersburg and Moscow may push him deeply into the kind of corner that causes a turn to the unthinkable -- the employment of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons against the Ukrainians. If that happened, mere condemnation would not save the Ukrainians easily. And President Biden might be compelled to react before he would want to do so – given the elections in November.
Putin certainly will not want to lose face as he confers today with President Xi Jinping. Nor can he expect strong backing from China at this stage; Xi is not yet ready to go to war against the U. S., nor to be hit with sanctions. We don’t need those kinds of complications yet either.
Putin is not mandating a nation-wide Russian draft – at least not yet. He wants to continue to pretend before the Russian people that he is merely engaging in a “special military operation” instead of an all-out war. He is fortunate, too, that the U. S. has forbidden Ukraine to use our heavy weapons to attack across the border, inside Russia. That prevents the Russian people along the border from fearing attacks and gives Putin much more impunity than he deserves.
Everything could change for the better, perhaps, and Zelensky’s soldiers could continue their drive well into the Ukrainian east and south. The Russians were surprised by the Ukrainian advances, and woefully unprepared. Morale is a major factor in combat; that the Russians stopped eating a big ham in the middle of one front-line village and fled, pell-mell, leaving uniforms on clotheslines, is telling. Those particular men will not be back. But more practiced warriors, like those from Chechnya, are both angered and appalled by Russian failure. We should not expect Putin’s army to slink home, no matter how much enlisted men may wish to do so.
The Ukrainian re-conquest, especially if it can hold re-claimed territory, should help Europe’s sacrificial loss of heat supplies and cascading inflation be met with more equanimity than before the recent advance. Nothing encourages citizen sacrifice more than battlefield successes assiduously celebrated by a masterful liberal voice like Zelensky’s.
The re-conquest also repays the confidence American military planners displayed when they decided to ship serious supplies of heavy weapons (and ammunition) to the front. Germany may now overcome its reluctance to engage thoroughly, and ship tanks and other materiel. Certainly this is the time to double down, not to be satisfied. Ukraine will require more and more equipment and re-supplies of ammunition. Our intelligence has apparently assisted the Ukrainian strategic thinking. That cooperation needs to continue, and be enhanced.
President Biden has been loth to be seen to engage directly, not wanting to threaten Putin. But we ought to consider how to help Ukraine gain control of the skies. That would turn the ground war decisively in Ukraine’s favor. If Putin unleashes chemical or nuclear weapons, doing so should immediately result in an American attempt to gain power over Ukraine’s air space.
Our diplomats and generals know that the only way Putin might consider serious peace talks is if Ukraine gains an upper, or at least a strong, hand. If that is indeed happening now, and if Ukraine can march forward for several more weeks, then Ukraine could enter negotiations with good bargaining chips. Let us hope that what is now happening on the ground is a true turning point. Too many lives are being lost in what began as a purposeless invasion and is now a truly existential struggle for the freedom of innocents everywhere, and for decency, tolerations, and democracy. The ghost of Abraham Lincoln applauds.