89 - The Other Invasions: II
Unconnected to Putin’s disastrous invasion of Ukraine, equally unprovoked and destructive invasions convulse large swaths of Africa. Islamist militants loyal to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State attack Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger incessantly; al-Qaeda allies keep Somalia, northern Mozambique, and the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo in daily turmoil; Rwandan-backed fighters pillage the eastern Congo; Ethiopia attacks its own citizens in the north; in Cameroon, Ambazonian separatists battle the state; and in populous Nigeria, Islamic State rebels, home-grown bandits, local secessionists, and a host of other armed dissidents disturb the peace.
This is the second of three connected posts, today’s dealing with Somalia. The third, on Wednesday, discusses Ethiopia, eastern Africa, and the Congo. On Friday, we wrote about West Africa.
Somalia
Over the weekend, al-Shabaab militants invaded a prominent hotel very close to Mogadishu’s fortified international airport, killing 21, wounding 117 others, 15 critically. The invaders also left unexploded bombs in some of the rooms.
Somalia suffers daily from a civil war pitting the army of the federal government of the Texas-sized state of 17 million people against warriors of al-Shabaab (“the youth”), the Islamist movement that now controls fully half of contemporary Somalia. In recent years al-Shabaab has claimed to be a part of al-Qaeda, with allegiance to the war that Osama bin Laden inspired. But the extent to which al-Qaeda influences how al-Shabaab operates on the ground is unknown, and possibly not even relevant. It considers itself part of the al-Qaeda global brand, as distinct from that of the Islamic State (ISIS).
Al-Shabaab cohorts extort taxes from “residents” in its area and also collect “protection” money from businesspeople in areas nominally still loyal to the national administration. It also profits from heroin trafficking north toward Europe and south toward Mozambique and South Africa, the heroin originating in Pakistan. Al-Shabaab covertly exports charcoal to Yemen and Saudi Arabia.
Al-Shabaab marauders raid government facilities throughout the country. Al-Shabaab recently also tried expanding into the Somali sections of Ethiopia. Its suicide bombers detonate themselves in crowded political meetings, restaurants, hotels and beachfront cafés. The recent leader of the U. S. Africa Command calls al-Shabaab al-Qaeda “most lethal,” wealthiest, and largest affiliate anywhere.
Al-Shabaab grew out of a youth-led Islamic courts movement in the 2006-2008 era. For at least the last twelve years it has terrorized much of Somalia, parts of nearby Puntland, northern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia. But the internationally unrecognized but very functional state of Somaliland, to Somalia’s north, is largely free of al-Shabaab dxepredations. The Ethiopian army successfully limited al-Shabaab’s reach in the 2000s but, given the weakness of the Somali political scene and its federal army, al-Shabaab rebounded.
An African Union military force of about 20,000 soldiers from Uganda, Burundi, and Kenya has tried to assist the federal army in combating al-Shabaab but, despite inferior numbers and training, al-Shabaab has continued to menace Mogadishu, the capital, and other major towns throughout what, nominally, is federal Somali controlled territory. (Experts doubt that al-Shabaab has more than 6,000 active fighters.) Nevertheless, al-Shabaab raided the African Union’s main base only a few weeks ago and killed 30 Burundian soldiers.
About 700 American special forces were active in assisting the federal army until Trump pulled them out in 2020. President Biden has now authorized the return of 450 operatives. Several local commentators blamed this weekend’s hotel invasion on the earlier withdrawal of American military aides.
The U. S. Africa Command also attacks al-Shabaab bases and salients with lethal drone strikes from an airfield in Djibouti (another Somali-speaking country along the Red Sea). Turkish drones have also hit al-Shabaab; Turkey has the largest diplomatic mission in Somalia, and a major trading presence.
The attack on the Hayat hotel in Mogadishu came as greater Somalia tries to cope with its worst drought in at least four years. The war in Ukraine has also curbed wheat and corn shipments to the region, so more than 7 million Somali are facing severe food shortages, rampant inflation, hunger, and famine. More than 200,000 Somali are already on the edge of starvation, according to the World Food Program. UN-sponsored shipments from Odesa may help to mitigate famine, but hardly soon enough.
A 20,000-strong military force mounted by the United Nations and the African Union, and composed of soldiers from several African nations, is attempting to contain al-Shabaab, with only marginal success. Indeed, the fact that a small number of al-Shabaab fighters were able to infiltrate a major hotel in the middle of Mogadishu, and maintain a siege for two days, testifies to the porous nature of the national capital’s defenses as much as it does to the ingenuity of a guerrilla movement that persists in embarrassing defenders with massive firepower.
Next installment on Wednesday