83 - How to Extinguish Democracy
Neglect will do it. Citizen ennui could contribute. So would the tolerating of creeping authoritarianism -- until it is too late. Tunisia, once a democratic result of the Arab Spring revolution, has now slid inexorably into the abyss of determined autocracy.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous polity, is teetering on the brink of losing its democracy because of the inability or unwillingness of its central governing institutions to exert themselves in the face of rising citizen disgust and anarchy. Argentina, Ecuador, Ghana, and Zimbabwe, among another dozen or so other countries, are all letting runaway inflation (73 to 568 percent, on an annual basis) erode what might remain of their democratic pretensions.
Tunisia
A mild-mannered, but clearly ruthless constitutional law professor with dictatorial ambitions spent the past fifteen months orchestrating Tunisia’s democratic demise. Last month a new constitution (replacing one from 2014) that he arranged to be drafted affirms the vast powers that President Kais Saied confirmed on himself so dramatically a year ago. Now his usurping of what was left of Tunisian democratic practice is complete and he rules with even more justified and sanctified power than his country’s earlier dominant presidents: Habib Bourguiba and Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali.
The new constitution was ratified by an astounding 95 percent of those who voted. But only 30 percent of eligible voters actually cast ballots. Neglect, apathy, the summer doldrums, and refusals to engage again in a political charade that had ultimately dismayed most adult Tunisians, accounted for the exceptionally low turnout. But that hardly matters to Saied, who cleverly and adroitly maneuvered his people into scattered anti-democratic corners.
Saied now has formal approval to exercise power in Tunisia without the agreement of parliament or the judiciary. Those institutions are reduced to bureaucratic adjuncts of an all-consuming executive. The president now is the sole authority in the nation, with the right to appoint government ministers and judges unilaterally.
The low turnout taints these new anti-democratic developments, but Saied has never lacked confidence in his own leadership abilities. Nor has he paid anything more than lip service to constraints that theoretically were embodied in the old constitution, as well as in the prior workings of the Tunisian state.
At first Tunisians welcomed Saied’s strong man tendencies, having become disenchanted with rampant corruption and lack of economic progress and advancement under earlier post-revolutionary regimes. Saied, elected in 2019, at first seemed the man to right Tunisia, restore jobs, and propel the country forward. Even his abandonment of democracy last year in what amounted to a palace coup was widely supported; Tunisians opted for what they may have believed was a benevolent dictatorship that would change their country for the better.
Yet, partially thanks to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulting inflationary surges, and shortages of staple grains like wheat, Tunisians are even more poorly placed than before. Saied’s autocracy has not produced palpable benefits that Tunisians can eat or bank. Nor has corruption receded under Saied’s regime.
The nation’s free press is no more and the elections authority and all courts are now under Saied’s control. Military tribunals try critics, Russian style. So even if citizens had hoped for order and prosperity, it is hard for anyone to know what they now have. There is no oversight, no transparency. And the broad array of Tunisian citizenry has mostly brought the loss of democratic input on itself.
Nigeria
President and former General Muhammadu Buhari is in his last eight months of office. His focus seems to be on official travel to external destinations and on refusing to intervene as his country’s 210 million people seem increasingly to suffer from central executive neglect. Banditry is now roiling at least seven of Nigeria’s thirty-six states, including some of its most populous and important. The Islamist insurgency throughout the nation’s northeast, especially in Borno, rolls on despite a national army that can muster ten times the fighters than the jihadists. Corruption, always heavy, has hardly been reduced under Buhari. Even increased revenues from oil have hardly helped Nigeria control its increasing disarray.
Vigilantism is on the rise. Citizens in some northern states, and even in the better off city-state of Lagos, have given up on their state and federal governments, and especially on Buhari’s leadership, and increasingly are trying to deal with rampant banditry by arming themselves and creating their own law-enforcement posses. Democracy breaks down under such pressures; the state’s social contract with its citizens implies the ability to keep its people safe and secure. When the nation can no longer do that, democracy recedes in favor of strong ruler ship and autocracy. Nigeria may thus follow Tunisia, shutting the door on two decades of democratic behavior. And if Nigeria sours on rule by its people(s), then the African soldiers who have recently commanded countries through coups – Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso – will feel justified in ending democratic pursuits. So will elected autocrats like Benin’s Patrice Talon and Zimbabwe’s Emmerson Mnangagwa. In Africa, as in Asia and in corners of Central and South America, state inadequacies or failures will condemn democracy to the dark corners of statecraft.
Inflation and Food Shortages
Putin’s war in Ukraine accelerates all of these tendencies by pushing some countries that face natural disasters from drought, like Somalia, over the very precipice of despair. Possibly, food shipments through the Black Sea will save some lives in the Horn of Africa where the lack of rain is causing millions to starve in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia. But it might also doom the performance of democrats in the eyes of citizens, and plunge more countries into the deep waters of strong-person rule.
Putin has also precipitated rolling waves of inflation that engulf the developing world. Sri Lanka has been driven into bankruptcy; its vaunted democratic tradition is at risk.
The Horsemen of the Apocalypse are riding hard into the sunset. The comparatively healthy and wealthy powers of the world have an opportunity to slow their galloping hooves to a canter, and to help mightily to preserve democracy across the globe despite the many hostile forces arrayed savagely to take away our fundamental freedoms.