81 - The Battle for Africa: Fallout from Ukraine
Hefty war antagonism between marauding Russia and Ukraine and its backers has accelerated an all-out competitive thrust into and for the hearts and minds of Africa and Africans. Even China is joining the race.
As I wrote in #80, “Russian Thievery Without Shame,” July 25, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov took his disinformation campaign to Egypt, Ethiopia, Uganda, and the Republic of Congo to blame the U. S. and the West for any food shortages and economic inflationary pain that their nations were suffering. “It isn’t our fault,” he told the autocratic leaders of those countries, each of whom detains or imprisons political dissenters without trial (on the Putinesque model) “that your people totter on the brink of starvation or stare at painful livelihood outcomes.” Lavrov refused to accept any Russian responsibility for the invasion and destruction of Ukraine, or for the collateral damage to Africans and Asians. Several of those with whom he met in Africa chose not to disagree publicly; they depend on Russian arms and, authoritarians themselves, secretly admire Putin’s manifold aggressions.
Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group, with close ties to Putin, is already bolstering the rule of an indigenous military junta in Mali, is poised to move into neighboring Burkina Faso, helps to support a questionable electoral regime in the Central African Republic, and has close ties to the generals who rule in Sudan. The Wagnerites have been accused of wanton massacres in Mali and Central Africa, of plundering gold in Central Africa and Sudan, and of retreating before Islamist rebels in northern Mozambique. Russia also seems to be benefiting from imports of gold from Eritrea, Africa’s most anti-democratic polity.
Russia also has Cold War ties to the movements that liberated South Africa from apartheid and helped free Angola, Mozambique, Guinea-Bissau, and Namibia from colonial rule in the late twentieth century. Of the twenty-five African countries that refused to condemn Russia’s invasion in the UN General Assembly in early March, nearly all had been supported in their anti-colonial struggle by the Soviet Union, and many of their contemporary leaders had been trained in Moscow. Eritrea voted with Belarus and Russia against the resolution.
Countering this summer’s energetic attempt by Russia to woo Africa, President Emmanuel Macron flew earlier this week to Benin, Cameroon, and Guinea-Bissau. In the first two countries he reiterated France’s concern for its ex-colonies despite the fact that President Paul Biya, Africa’s longest serving despot, is busily engaged in brutalizing the 20 percent of his people who speak English, not French, and are attempting to separate their southwestern section of the country. The English-speakers are engaged in guerilla actions in order to create a new entity that they want to call Ambazonia.
Macron went from Yaoundé, the capital of Cameroon, to Benin to consort with President Patrice Talon, another self-styled authoritarian. He has turned a once democratic African exemplar into another tight-fisted enterprise, with wealth (as in Cameroon) flowing upwards, and not to the people. Benin is beginning to see Islamist insurgents attacking its northern section, spilling out of the jihadist warfare that has engulfed Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Macron did not visit Niger, democratically run, where France will soon re-locate 2,500 or so French forces from Mali. Niger is to become the base for French efforts to prevent an Islamist return to hegemonic control in Mali and, now, in Burkina Faso. Macron unwillingly has backed away from rebuffs by the Malian junta, and from direct conflict with the Wagnerite contingents.
Washington is sending UN Ambassador and former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Linda Thomas-Greenfield this week to Ghana and Uganda to reinforce American efforts to counter the Russian disinformation dissemination, and to show that US soft power still is relevant and powerful. USAID Administrator Samantha Power was just in Kenya and Somalia on a similar mission, and Mike Hammer, the US special envoy to the Horn of Africa was in Sudan while Lavrov was in Egypt.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is going to join the U. S. initiative shortly with a likely flag showing visit to key African capitals. Africans are bound to welcome his counter to Lavrov; Africans embrace forays by significant Americans, and wish that they were more frequent. The efforts of Thomas-Greenfield, Power, and Blinken underscore the obvious fact that Lavrov spouts lies (as I said July 25); the odious truth of what is happening in Ukraine is evident, even to African dictators. But we cannot expect autocrats to pull away from “neutrality” nor “non-alignment” given Russia’s ability to continue to weaponize Africa (it is the largest shipper of large and small arms to the continent); to supply wheat, barley, and sunflower oil from its own granaries and from those stolen from Ukraine; or for omnipotent rulers to break with someone supportive of their depredations, like Putin.
The ruthless nature of Russia’s war in Ukraine is well known, if not always discussed openly. China has not yet invaded Taiwan, so its human rights abuses of the Uyghurs and Tibetans are less a concern for most African ruling elites. Scholarships to study in China are welcome. So are Mandarin classes in schools in several countries, paid for by China, and the proliferation of Confucius Institutes in dozens of places. China backs juntas and autocrats when Westerners refrain. And China is the key constructor of dams, party headquarters, roads, and rail lines throughout the continent. It also embroils a number of African nations in debt, but recently began hinting at relief and restructuring in critical cases.
The US is not competing with China in upgrading the continent’s infrastructure, or in supplying military hardware (Russia’s specialty). Nor does Washington fawn as China and Russia do over African despots and their unseemly methods of controlling their subject populations.
Yet, the US still has abundant soft power prominence left over from the heady days of American influence in the liberation struggle, especially in southern Africa. The legacy of schooling in America is also still strong, with legions of elite Africans having been nurtured in the US. But the US is nowadays weaker than it was, thanks to neglect and abuse by the Trump administration. Our diplomats and our embassies are fewer than the Chinese across the continent. Even where there are established embassies, their ranks are not yet filled; ambassadors wait too long to be confirmed, and subordinate positions also remain unfilled. Just as Blinken promised to open embassies in the South Pacific, on his upcoming trip to Africa he needs to assure key African partners, and then all nations, that the American diplomatic and aid presence in Africa will soon be robust.
It is easier to counter Russian and Chinese influence if we have capable Americans on the ground helping to restore the paramount influence that we once exerted across the continent. The fact that our Special Forces are returning to Somalia also helps. But it is up to Blinken and other Washingtonians, and ultimately to President Biden, to wave the US flag strategically throughout Africa. President Biden need not wait for December’s high level meeting in Washington with Africa’s leaders to establish his and our nation’s willingness to partner well with all manner of African governments. It is time we showed up — everywhere.