68 - Does the Rule of Law Prevail?
The war in Ukraine tests whether aggression dominates and controls the conduct of affairs between nations. The future of our carefully constructed post-World War II civilization fundamentally depends on its outcome. Will might prevail, and do the poorer and weaker nations of the world now have to fear for their sovereign existence and integrity? Or will the courageous manner in which Ukraine has defended itself, and the rest of Europe and North America backed Ukraine, ultimately overcome the Russian invaders, rebuke Putin, and restore the rule of law, globally?
Even before Putin, unprovoked, attacked Ukraine, the World Justice Project concluded that in 2021 respect for the rule of law had fallen across the planet. Nearly 75 percent of the nations of the world showed weak adherence to rule of law fundamentals, with national scores that fell from 2020. Only 25 percent of 139 nations examined improved their adherence to the rule law from 2020 to 2021. There are more dictators and kleptocrats than ever before, too, not that the Project counted them, and the intensity of civil conflicts remains high and heated.
The order of the planet is less robust than it has been, with Putin’s warmongering by far the most egregious of rule of law transgressions. What is happening – as we have been writing – in disparate places such as Brazil, Ethiopia, Nicaragua, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Tunisia, and Zimbabwe hardly competes on the odious scale with Putin’s aggression, but rulers in such countries now take cues from his narcissistic exploits. That is why he must be stopped, for the sake of world order and world comity.
The Justice Project issues an annual Rule of Law Index. Its findings are derived from extensive opinion polling across the globe (138,000 households) and the opinions of a range of experts (4,200) drawn from academia and the legal profession. The result measures, for example, whether citizens have access to courts, whether crime is effectively controlled, whether the powers of governmental leaders are subject to citizen containment, whether the state serves the public interest rather than the interests of powerful cliques, whether the state protects human rights, whether corruption is curbed, and whether all elements in society are held accountable without exception.
When the Justice Project released the results of its latest Index, in June, Nordic countries were again at the top of the list, with the best scores as rule of law adhering nations. Denmark, Norway, Finland, and Sweden, in that order, were ahead of Germany, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Luxembourg, Austria, Ireland, and Estonia (in eleventh place).
Not surprisingly, at the bottom of this iteration of the index, moving upward in order from 139th to 138th, and so on, are Venezuela, Cambodia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Cameroon, Afghanistan, Mauritania, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Pakistan (130th) – the worst of the worst. Ethiopia was 122nd, Lebanon 104th, Russia 101st (before the invasion), China 98th, Colombia 86th, Brazil 77th, Ukraine 74th, Moldova 73rd, the United States 27th, the United Kingdom 16th, and Canada 12th.
The Rule of Law Index combines separate rankings and sub-indexes for “Constraints on Government Powers,” “Absence of Corruption,” “Open Government,” “Fundamental [Human} Rights,” “Order and Security,” “Regulatory Enforcement,” “Civil Justice,” and “Criminal Justice.” On none of these sub-indexes does Russia (even before the war) rate well, and almost always below Ukraine. With regard to respect for fundamental rights, Russia joins the Democratic Republic of Congo at the back of the pack. It scored 88th on the absence of corruption list, just above Morocco and Tanzania, and considerably above Ukraine. (That last failing will doubtless weigh against Ukraine as Europe considers whether to advance Ukraine’s candidacy status. But, again, the Index reflects results for 2021, before the war.)
Within the detailed overall Rule of Law rankings, and after a close scrutiny of the component sub-indexes, there are doubtless anomalies, and some questionable placements viz a viz other nations. But within the Index category “Eastern Europe and Central Asia,” few could fault the Index for rating Georgia 1st, Ukraine 7th, and Russia and Turkey 13th and 14th out of 14. Belarus was 11th.
As a collection of nations across the planet, the Index shows how fully the Rule of Law as a concept and as a creed hangs in the balance. When global powers and would be powers such as China and Russia score so poorly, when most of Africa brings up the rear, and when the United States slumps to 27th, well below the Nordics, New Zealand, Canada, and the United Kingdom, woe to the world. A major component of this disarray is the fall of the United States in the ratings from earlier years, and from before the Index existed. If only our full adherence to the rule of law was a given, respected as it once was by all, then we could confidently impose adherence to rule of law concepts by moral force. But no longer, and respect and adherence to the rule of law worldwide suffers accordingly.
Would Putin have invaded Ukraine if respect for the United States were as thorough as it once was? Would China contemplate invading Taiwan if the rest of the globe, boosted by Washington, nominally (at least) believed in a strong rule of law?
At stake on the Ukrainian warfront, to repeat the obvious, is humanity’s governance by legal norms, not personal antagonistic caprice. That is why the Ukrainian David fights the Russian Goliath so courageously, and why it now longs deservedly to be embraced by Europe.