60 -Putting the U. S. Back in Play: Regaining Real Influence in the Middle East and Africa
Washington can no longer afford to neglect even the most peripheral parts of the planet. President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken have now acknowledged that the big battles against Russia and China extend far beyond Ukraine and Taiwan to distant capitals in the South Pacific, to the rest of Asia, to Africa, and even to the Americas.
Cavorting with Kings in the Middle East
President Biden is going to try to work some magic in Saudi Arabia by seeing King Salman and his son Mohammed bin Salman, the de facto ruler of the Wahhabi kingdom. Saudi Arabia was always a loyal American ally from President Harding’s time onward, especially during President Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s era and World War II. Now, we again need the Saudis to gush petroleum globally in hope that enhanced supplies will eventually (preferably well before the November election) bring down the price to American consumers while simultaneously replacing the oil that Europe will cease buying from Russia, the world’s larger exporter after the Saudis.
President Biden also wants to persuade the Saudis to start shunning Putin’s Russia and to help Washington put pressure on the United Arab Emirates (where President Biden is also about to visit) to stop sheltering Russian oligarchs, their yachts, and their money. He will also be asking both Arab monarchies to upgrade the two-month old ceasefire with the Yemen (now renewed for another two months) with a permanent cessation of hostilities between the Sunni Arab kingdoms and the Iranian-backed Houthi revolutionary rulers of Yemen. The war there has been horrifically damaging, with immense humanitarian suffering; neither the Houthi nor their opponents can triumph. It is time to call halt to the war. President Biden will uses carrots and sticks to oblige the Saudis to accept the futility of further combat. If he can accomplish that mission, gain promises about the oligarchs, and possibly manage to open the petroleum taps, President Biden will have begun to remove the stain of his predecessor from U. S. activities in the Middle East.
President Biden might on a later occasion travel to Africa – mostly to show up, and to show the flag. Africans and Asians admire much about the United States, still want to attend universities in the U. S., over-indulge in American social media, and watch American movies and television shows. Our soft power remains attractive.
Competing with China and Russia
But China shows up more than we do. China responds to requests speedily. China builds roads, bridges, railways, political party headquarter buildings, hospitals, and schools. It gives scholarships for varieties of advanced training in China. Most of all, China rewards heads of state and key cabinet ministers well. Money flows when a small country abandons Taiwan and aligns itself with China, cash going to the autocrat or democrat, not to the state.
In terms of foreign assistance, both Washington and Beijing have large and responsive aid programs. But American aid comes with many more conditions and sharp eyed attention to poverty alleviation, participation by stakeholders, and good governance, all issues about which China cares little. As long as an indigenous ruler looks to have staying power, China makes no demands. It never “interferes,” even if a nation’s ruling elite is crooked and abuses the public interest.
Most of all, China is in every African capital, showering favor upon key members of ruling political parties and their key officials. China has 54 embassies in Africa’s 54 nations, plus some consulates in some of the bigger polities. About 45 of those embassies also house military attaches capable spying on military and security arrangements throughout the Continent.
China seeds newspapers and television programs in numerous African countries with free news items and commentaries. It beams television shows and propaganda documentaries into millions of homes. It offers training in Mandarin in several countries and establishes Confucius Institutes in a larger number. Higher education scholarships for study in Beijing and other Chinese cities are available. Inexpensive Chinese goods are everywhere in Africa, benefiting consumers but undermining the efforts of local African entrepreneurs. There is no escaping China in Africa
By contrast, even after re-opening several embassies this year, the American total is only 48 in Africa, with many embassies hard to reach, for security purposes, Our military attaches are fewer, too. And USAID is now only active in 17 African states. The Peace Corps at one point was a very popular expression of the best kinds of American soft power. But we withdrew everyone when Covid-19 hit Africa; today only 29 African countries host Peace Corps volunteers.
The coronavirus pandemic interrupted Africa’s trade relations, but China is still Africa’s most important overall trading partner, with India, the United States, and Germany trailing. Africa also purchases far more from China than from South Africa, Germany, and the United States, in that order.
Bringing Africa Back
Whatever the details of embassies, tv program placements, viewers of social media, imports and exports, Washington needs friends in Africa. Nineteen African countries refused to support the US in the UN Security Council when it voted to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Hence, the United States needs strenuously today (much more than in earlier decades) to compete across the board for African hearts and minds, countering China’s increasing influence by appointing and confirming ambassadors to vacant embassies, by stepping up aid considerations, and by redoubling our military support for local efforts to oust Islamist insurgents throughout the continent.
Recently, too, Russia strengthened its reach on the continent by embracing Mozambique diplomatically and financially, adding another country to its own collection of friends (despite the invasion of Ukraine). Already, Russia has dispatched mercenary soldiers to Mali (where they have committed atrocities), to the Central African Republic (ditto), and to Sudan.
If Washington wants to blunt China and Russia’s quest for friends and UN votes, it needs to appear more often. President Xi Jinping has visited Africa four times in his ten years in office. Washington endured a president who called Africans and African countries despicable names.
Now it is up to the Biden administration to follow its initiatives in the Middle East with a series of influential sorties to Africa. This is especially so because much of Africa is experiencing grain shortages and hunger thanks to Putin’s blockade of Ukraine. Drought is also hitting the Horn of Africa hard. In other countries, such as Zambia, there are large debts owed to China and Europe and no means to pay. Washington can do far more to embrace Africa and its real needs than even the Obama and Bush administrations did. Given the loss of American influence and soft power globally, it is past time to act.