357 - Good News Out of Eastern Europe: But Elections are not Over
Instead of right-wing Trump-emulating political victories, the latest news from the electoral front is that voters in disparate countries are rejecting crypto-fascists and favoring politicians from the center, even from the left. Trump calls liberal thinking "woke" and its practitioners "lunatics." But this week voters overwhelmingly chose just those choices to lead several countries. By doing so, in difficult and dangerous times they collectively supported Europe's backing of Ukraine against Russia and a unified Europe against Trump and his tariffs.
The strongest rejection of extreme Trumpers came unexpectedly in Romania. With a massive surge of voters participating in the second and final round of presidential elections, the left-leaning mayor of Bucharest, the country's capital, overcame the large lead in the election's first round of a right-wing anti-democrat. Nicusor Dan, the mayor, received 54 percent of the vote, after seriously trailing George Simion in the earlier round. Eleven million of Romania's twenty million citizens voted, a major increase from turnout in the first round. (Steve Bannon is allied to Simion.)
In addition to breaking with Trump, Romanians explicitly answered U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and Elon Musk. Earlier this year, they heavily criticized Romania for cancelling an election result that had been tainted by heavy Russian interference and vote buying. A thoroughly compromised TikTok was the key vehicle for disinformation. As often, Vance and Musk expressed their liking for true fascists, as also in Germany, in Britain, and -- implicitly -- in Putin's Russia.
Dan believes in Romania's membership in the European Union whereas Simion was more allied to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's antagonistic stance toward the rest of Europe. Like Orban, Simion also questioned Ukraine's sovereignty and campaigned openly to reabsorb parts of Ukraine now settled by persons speaking Romanian. He also wanted to bring Moldova, where virtually the entire population speaks Romanian, back into the supposed mother country. (Moldova was indeed within Romania in pre-Soviet times.)
Hungarians, a sizable minority within Romania, overwhelmingly voted against Simion despite his alliance with Orban, and their similar opinions about the European Union and Ukraine.
The electors rejected such chauvinism overwhelmingly when they cast ballots for Dan. He has been active fighting Romania's widespread public and private corruption. Along with Bulgaria and Hungary within Europe, Romania is thoroughly infected with corruption and kleptocracy. Whether Dan will be able to influence members of Parliament to join him in a legislative as well as a rhetorical campaign against his country's corrosive corruption is still to be determined.
Although presidents in Eastern Europe are largely ceremonial, but with the ability to veto legislation and influence foreign affairs, the victory of Dan, and others nearby, has immense practical as well as symbolic significance -- none more important than the rejection of Trump acolytes with fascist tendencies.
Another possible breakthrough took place in Poland, where liberal and staunchly European Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government has been hampered in its democratic reforming by vetoes wielded by President Andrzej Duda, a holdover supporter of the Law and Justice Party regime that Tusk's government replaced in 2023. But in this week's first round of the Polish presidential poll, Tusk's ally -- Rafal Trzaskowski, the Civic Action mayor of Warsaw -- received slightly more votes than Karol Nawrocki, a Duda loyalist and conservative historian. If Trzaskowski's lead holds in the second round on June 1, that will be another indication that the non-Trump Tusk government has held on to its backing, even in conservative, rural, Poland.
Observers worry that Nawrocki may receive a stronger backing in the second round from supporters of other rightwing parties. Two small Polish extremist parties took small percentages of the total vote. One, that gained 6 percent of the total, is openly and viciously anti-Ukrainian and anti-Simetic. Another, less poisonous in its views, gained 15 percent of the vote. If followers of both parties opt for Nawrocki in the final round, Poland could shift away from Tusk and Europe.
In Portugal, where Trumpism was not on this week's ballot, the center-right Democratic Alliance (now in charge in Parliament) gained a few more votes than the center-left Socialist Party. It is likely to form yet another minority government, Portugal's third in three years. Portugal has been wracked by striking absences of political consensus regarding what to do about housing shortages, the rising cost of living, and immigration -- largely from North Africa. A minority government may once again fail to move Portugal forward, imperiling its economic growth and weakening European togetherness in the Iberian Peninsula.
Conceivably more significant than the anti-Trump triumphs in Eastern Europe was this week's tentative embrace by Britain of Europe. With some serious concessions to Belgian and French fisherfolk, Britain edged itself back into the Union. It will adhere to several agricultural, food, and youthful cross-border movement preferences established by Europe, and become a stronger part of Europe's defense initiatives. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer wants his country to re-join Europe without officially overturning the disastrous Brexit vote that sundered Britain's ties to the continent. Indeed, only 30 percent of Britons now believe that Brexit was sensible. But Starmer does not wish to battle against the new British Reform Party's anti-European bias.
If Polish liberalism prevails and Dan manages to help Romania's government contain local fascism, the European Union could emerge from this electoral season and from close negotiations with Britain more unified than ever before. Trump's erratic antagonism and Putin's intransigence will have both helped to make the European model much more resilient.
Subscribers: There will a short pause in the arrival of this newsletter. I will shortly be in Peru without a computer, returning and writing again to subscribers in early June.
Instead of right-wing Trump-emulating political victories, the latest news from the electoral front is that voters in disparate countries are rejecting crypto-fascists and favoring politicians from the center, even from the left. Trump calls liberal thinking "woke" and its practitioners "lunatics." But this week voters overwhelmingly chose just those choices to lead several countries. By doing so, in difficult and dangerous times they collectively supported Europe's backing of Ukraine against Russia and a unified Europe against Trump and his tariffs.
The strongest rejection of extreme Trumpers came unexpectedly in Romania. With a massive surge of voters participating in the second and final round of presidential elections, the left-leaning mayor of Bucharest, the country's capital, overcame the large lead in the election's first round of a right-wing anti-democrat. Nicusor Dan, the mayor, received 54 percent of the vote, after seriously trailing George Simion in the earlier round. Eleven million of Romania's twenty million citizens voted, a major increase from turnout in the first round. (Steve Bannon is allied to Simion.)
In addition to breaking with Trump, Romanians explicitly answered U.S. Vice-President JD Vance and Elon Musk. Earlier this year, they heavily criticized Romania for cancelling an election result that had been tainted by heavy Russian interference and vote buying. A thoroughly compromised TikTok was the key vehicle for disinformation. As often, Vance and Musk expressed their liking for true fascists, as also in Germany, in Britain, and -- implicitly -- in Putin's Russia.
Dan believes in Romania's membership in the European Union whereas Simion was more allied to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban's antagonistic stance toward the rest of Europe. Like Orban, Simion also questioned Ukraine's sovereignty and campaigned openly to reabsorb parts of Ukraine now settled by persons speaking Romanian. He also wanted to bring Moldova, where virtually the entire population speaks Romanian, back into the supposed mother country. (Moldova was indeed within Romania in pre-Soviet times.)
Hungarians, a sizable minority within Romania, overwhelmingly voted against Simion despite his alliance with Orban, and their similar opinions about the European Union and Ukraine.
The electors rejected such chauvinism overwhelmingly when they cast ballots for Dan. He has been active fighting Romania's widespread public and private corruption. Along with Bulgaria and Hungary within Europe, Romania is thoroughly infected with corruption and kleptocracy. Whether Dan will be able to influence members of Parliament to join him in a legislative as well as a rhetorical campaign against his country's corrosive corruption is still to be determined.
Although presidents in Eastern Europe are largely ceremonial, but with the ability to veto legislation and influence foreign affairs, the victory of Dan, and others nearby, has immense practical as well as symbolic significance -- none more important than the rejection of Trump acolytes with fascist tendencies.
Another possible breakthrough took place in Poland, where liberal and staunchly European Prime Minister Donald Tusk's government has been hampered in its democratic reforming by vetoes wielded by President Andrzej Duda, a holdover supporter of the Law and Justice Party regime that Tusk's government replaced in 2023. But in this week's first round of the Polish presidential poll, Tusk's ally -- Rafal Trzaskowski, the Civic Action mayor of Warsaw -- received slightly more votes than Karol Nawrocki, a Duda loyalist and conservative historian. If Trzaskowski's lead holds in the second round on June 1, that will be another indication that the non-Trump Tusk government has held on to its backing, even in conservative, rural, Poland.
Observers worry that Nawrocki may receive a stronger backing in the second round from supporters of other rightwing parties. Two small Polish extremist parties took small percentages of the total vote. One, that gained 6 percent of the total, is openly and viciously anti-Ukrainian and anti-Simetic. Another, less poisonous in its views, gained 15 percent of the vote. If followers of both parties opt for Nawrocki in the final round, Poland could shift away from Tusk and Europe.
In Portugal, where Trumpism was not on this week's ballot, the center-right Democratic Alliance (now in charge in Parliament) gained a few more votes than the center-left Socialist Party. It is likely to form yet another minority government, Portugal's third in three years. Portugal has been wracked by striking absences of political consensus regarding what to do about housing shortages, the rising cost of living, and immigration -- largely from North Africa. A minority government may once again fail to move Portugal forward, imperiling its economic growth and weakening European togetherness in the Iberian Peninsula.
Conceivably more significant than the anti-Trump triumphs in Eastern Europe was this week's tentative embrace by Britain of Europe. With some serious concessions to Belgian and French fisherfolk, Britain edged itself back into the Union. It will adhere to several agricultural, food, and youthful cross-border movement preferences established by Europe, and become a stronger part of Europe's defense initiatives. British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer wants his country to re-join Europe without officially overturning the disastrous Brexit vote that sundered Britain's ties to the continent. Indeed, only 30 percent of Britons now believe that Brexit was sensible. But Starmer does not wish to battle against the new British Reform Party's anti-European bias.
If Polish liberalism prevails and Dan manages to help Romania's government contain local fascism, the European Union could emerge from this electoral season and from close negotiations with Britain more unified than ever before. Trump's erratic antagonism and Putin's intransigence will have both helped to make the European model much more resilient.
Subscribers: There will a brief pause in the arrival of this newsletter. I will shortly be in Peru without a computer, returning and writing again to subscribers early in June.