322 - The State of the World, 2025, I: Consuming Challenges

It is still a perilous world, with endless and debilitating killing fields. Russians are dying in their thousands as they assault, and seem poised to take, front line cities from Ukraine. At home and on the eastern battlefields, Ukrainians live without much electricity and in constant fear of Russian drone and missile arrivals. The (probable) final shipments of U.S. arms are arriving in Kyiv, but perhaps too late to turn the combat in Ukraine's favor. Who knows what erratic grandstanding Trumpets are ahead, but his threat/promise to end Putin's invasion quickly hardly bodes well for Ukraine's sovereignty and independence.

Russia and China

Freedom in Europe and globally certainly is at supreme risk when and if Trump takes the oath of presidential office. He forfeits Taiwan as well as U. S. supremacy if he forces Ukraine to capitulate to a dictator like Putin. President Jimmy Carter's attempt, always, to do the "right" thing should be a lesson to us all, and to a Trump who only listens to his own inner transactional deal making impulses.

Purchasing Greenland is a non-starter, and the Panama Canal now belongs to Panama, fair and square. Thus, instead of blustering about those already long-ago missed or lost opportunities, a sensible 2025 White House will start focusing, Carter and Biden style, on the policy alternatives realistically ahead of us in today's contested world. Yes, Trump can pontificate about Greenland and its minerals, and perhaps extend his deal-making mind to conjuring up the perfect exchange of Texas and Florida to Denmark for Greenland -- the planet's largest island -- but a world in turmoil needs attention elsewhere. Putin and Xi Jinping are also imperial expansionists: Why should Trump seek to emulate Communist despots?

First Trump should be thinking intelligently about China, effectively to counter its destructive bullying of the Philippines, Indonesia, and Vietnam in the South China Sea. Doing so, and forcibly reasserting the international character of waterways there, and in the Strait of Taiwan, ought to be powerfully enough put to encourage President Xi to rethink his plot to reunite Taiwan to the Chinese motherland in 2027, come what may. Trump needs to show resistance and strength now, not later. Building up our naval forces, now outmatched in number by the Chinese fleet, and paying attention to our deteriorating supplies of defensive and offensive missiles, is essential. So might be quiet but implacably strong words to North Korea. A reset with China would be extraordinarily transformative, but can a warped Trump even begin to think so strategically?

China (and North Korea) will be closely watching how Putin plays Trump, and whether he wins or loses. It is hence imperative that Trump listens carefully to the chiefs of staff and to those strategists who had Biden's ear and now must fight off the ideologues and know-nothings who surround Trump. As disastrous as domestic flights of fancy may be, especially with the challenged and compromised troll Elon Musk mouthing fascist sentiments nearby, our fundamental safety and the future of the free world could easily be jeopardized by a Trump who panders to global dictators and to his own prejudices about what's best for the world. President Biden has kept America's head for the most part high; Trump needs to adopt such a posture even if he seeks mostly to achieve financial gains for his little separated private businesses. Paying careful attention to the tenor of the eulogies for Carter on Jan. 9 would be a positive sign.

Instead of biovating about Greenland, if Trump could be induced to speak positively of NATO and Europe, plus Japan and South Korea, Washington could transition Trump's mindless mutterings into positive thrusts that would discomfort both Putin and Xi, and lead to the kinds of global cooperation that would do more to strengthen the U.S. and Trump than almost anything else. Whether Senator Marco Rubio has the status and ability to shape Trump's mind in this direction is unclear. The likely Intelligence and CIA heads do not, and his National Security advisor will not have the independence and strategic smarts of outgoing Jake Sullivan. Today's Washington, captured by Trumpists, lacks the kinds of Republican savvy and awareness that were available to presidents like Ronald Reagan and G. W. H. Bush.

The Middle East

Ukraine and Taiwan should be uppermost on Trump's agenda. Next, without any moments or thinking times to spare, are Israel, Gaza, Palestine, Syria, Iran, and Yemen, all intertwined, inflammable, dangerous, and deadly.

Israel is now ascendant in the region, having reduced Iran's potency by pummeling Hezbollah in Lebanon, bombing Iran effectively, assassinating proxy leaders throughout the region, and even retaliating 1000 miles away in Sanaa, the capital of Houthi-controlled northern Yemen.

The ex-al-Qaeda takeover of Syria, partially facilitated by Israel's weakening of Iran's grip on the region, further marginalizes Iran and ends an affiliation with the despotic al-Assad regime that enabled an Iranian military supply corridor across Syria to Hezbollah and Hamas in Gaza. Trump needs to assist Israel in befriending the Ahmed al-Sharaa regime in Damascus -- together bringing the putative new government in from the cold. Syria under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) could become an immensely stabilizing polity in the Middle East, providing that it remains "pragmatic" in its aspirations, stays moderate in its social approach, and rejects ties to Iran and Russia. Removing its designation as a terrorist operation could shortly be a very good choice. If some result like that begins to take shape, our policy options in the Middle East will become much more favorable, and Israel ought to become more secure. But Trump could easily blow such a great opportunity by false moves, blustering, and foolish mismanagement.

Simultaneously, Trump has a golden opportunity as a demonstrated friend of Israel to help Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu consummate the cease fire in Gaza that he is avoiding. It is long past time to stanch the slaughter in Gaza and free the remaining hostages. Trump could also make it clear to Netanyahu that Israel absolutely must take civil control of Gaza and establish an administration and a successful police (not just a bombing and strafing) operation. It has been absolutely shameful that criminal gangs have intercepted massive aid shipments and prevented Gazan civilians from accessing the humanitarian aid that they desperately need and that is destined for them. Why Netanyahu has refused to "administer" the strip is not clear, but failing to do so must stop.

It is a first charge on the incoming Trump administration to make sure Netanyahu understands what he absolutely must do to continue to be worthy of American support. If so, the rest of the Middle East could fall into place.

This Newsletter continues on Thursday with part II of the State of the World, 2025