266 - Can Ukraine Survive? Or Will Putin's Aggression Triumph
Ukrainian defenders are out-manned, out-gunned, and out-resourced -- all thanks to Trump and Republican politicking. Fortunately, President Biden and our European allies have now permitted Ukraine's military to shell into Russia, and to use American- and European-supplied heavy weaponry to try to forestall a massive Russian invasion into Ukraine's exposed northeast.
But the F-16s that would give Ukraine greater defensive, and even offensive, coverage have still not arrived. (Thirty such aircraft from Belgium will only come in 2028!) Nor have enough of the promised howitzer shells, armored troop vehicles, and electronic jamming equipment that Ukraine's embattled soldiers require to repel the Russian invaders. Patriot missile batteries and the missiles themselves are also in short supply, making Russian cruise missiles and drones launched against Ukrainian buildings, civilians, and electricity generating stations hard to combat. (Only two-thirds of them were intercepted over Ukraine on Saturday.) Even more difficult, and destructive, are new Russian glide bombs. Ukraine needs to combat them when they are launched, not when they are about to hit targets.
President Volodymyr Zelensky sees no reason why Polish and other NATO members should not help out by shooting down the missiles and drones that are being propelled (as on Saturday) into lightly defended western Ukraine -- just as Jordan and Saudi Arabia helped Israel defend against recent Iranian missile bombardments.
Indeed, Ukraine’s dearth of air defense systems has left some of its western cities far more exposed than others. Russia has taken advantage of this weakness in recent months, hitting cities and regions that do not enjoy the same protection as Kyiv, the capital, shielded as it is by strongly positioned American-made Patriot systems. Already, 50 percent of Ukraine's electricity supply has been knocked out. Water systems have also been battered.
If and when Ukraine receives ammunition and heavy artillery sufficient to match the Russians, and if and when Ukraine's attack force manages to shell the Russians now massing across the border near Kharkiv and Sumy, only then might we regain confidence regarding Ukraine's survival. But as ingenious, courageous, and resilient as the Ukrainians have been, the Russians may still overpower Ukraine’s defenses -- all thanks to the Republicans.
Ukraine is cleverly manufacturing its own drones and deploying as many as 200,000 so far this year. In recent days Ukraine has even managed to attack Russian petroleum facilities more than 1,000 miles into Russia. These successes are morale boosters for Ukraine more than they are decisive blows against Putin. However, if and when Ukraine has enough artillery, ammunition, and electronic resources to truly go on the offensive, possibly the war could turn. Until that happy and now questionable moment arrives, however, the defense of Ukraine will remain perilous and parlous. We must rush the training of pilots and tank drivers; we must hasten the making and sending of shells. If French President Emmanuel Macron has his way, too, possibly Europeans can help to instruct Ukrainian technicians and new their troops and assist in filling the great gaps that now persist in the ranks of Ukrainian warfare..
Putin has been holding back American and NATO efforts to give Ukraine lethal assistance by threatening to fire tactical nuclear weapons. By rattling the nuclear war threat, he warns NATO not to escalate its backing of Ukraine. Fortunately, now Washington seems to think that China and India have cautioned Putin against unleashing nuclear weapons. Whereas for two years the Biden administration has attempted to provoke Putin as little as possible in order to try to avoid a World War III, it now recognizes that Ukraine could be soon overrun by Russians if nothing changes. Hence, the new willingness to let Ukraine attack into Russia.
Washington clearly came to the conclusion that the risks of not allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia, at least in a limited capacity, outweighed the risks that doing so would actually lead to escalation. Zelensky has long advocated calling Putin's bluff.
At the same, with Russia recently gaining a plausible upper hand in the war, Putin has hinted to several internal news platforms that he is conceivably open to a peace deal that would leave him with the 20 percent of Ukraine's land mass -- essentially his 2014 and current additional territorial gains (perhaps 60 square miles to date). Zelensky has expressed adamant disdain for such an outcome, as have most of his followers. But if Putin is actually sincere, and persuades others that he would truly end the war on that basis, Washington and other Western capitals would doubtless attempt to engineer such a result. As Biden has said, the war has gone on too long. It has been a long slog with immense Ukrainian suffering and huge human troop losses on the Russian side.
Failing such a peace deal and failing a Russian breakthrough across Ukrainian lines, the long crush of war will doubtless continue. This week and next will determine whether a dangerous breakthrough is possible, and if civilians can or are allowed to hold on in Kharkiv and nearby villages, or even in endangered Chasiv Yar. If not, Kyiv and the freedom of the peoples and countries within the Western alliance will seriously be at existential risk.
NATO needs to think about what more it can do to prevent a Russian victory.