252 - Democratic Leanings Persist Despite Autocratic Pressures: Electoral Omens
Turkey, Senegal, South Africa
Finally, some good news! Much of the globe, more and more including these United States, is in chaos, conflict, and acute disarray. But just when gloom was growing almost everywhere, two electoral outcomes give us a little tangible hope that voters can buck autocrats and anti-democrats and choose paths that promise more freedom, more rights, and better chances to benefit entire populations, not only elites.
Turkey
Voters last weekend decisively rejected the twenty year increasingly heavy handed and intolerant rule of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by choosing leaders from the opposition Republican People's Party (RFP) to govern the country's most important cities, especially Istanbul and Ankara, the national capital. The RFP won 38 percent of the popular vote, a few points more than Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (JDP). But, significantly, the RFP now controls six of the ten most important of Turkey's cities and, overall, thirty-five of all of the country's eighty-one municipalities. It gained fourteen new mayoral administrations last week.
The biggest battle was in Istanbul, where fully 20 percent of Turks live. Instead of a challenger favored and promoted by Erdogan (once the city's mayor), the city reelected Ekrem Imamoglu, who Erdogan tried once before to oust. Imamoglu, a 57-year old businessman, confirmed his pole position as a credible successor to Erdogan and a rival now supported strongly by voters. He took 53 percent of the vote in Istanbul.
By rejecting Erdogan’s policies, voters all over Turkey were rejecting an emphasis on the creeping Islamization of public life in once secular and republican Turkey. Voters were doubtless also disturbed by persistent inflation, now ranging about 67 percent on an annual basis. Few Turks have improved their living standards under Erdogan, certainly not in the last five years. They may conceivably also have been upset at his refusal to back Ukraine against Russia, by his pronounced friendship with Putin (despite being a member of NATO), and by his willingness to let Russians and Russian-friendly business people smuggle critical and sanctioned equipment from the West to Moscow (through Istanbul and Ankara). His anti-Kurdish attacks are a factor, as well.
Erdogan was reelected narrowly last May and need not face the electorate until 2028. He recently said that this was his "last election." But, smarting from what he himself called "a turning point" -- the loss of cities and a suddenly stronger RFP than his JDP-- Erdogan may attempt to shore up his personal power and marginalize Imamoglu. Democrats are not yet home free in Turkey.
Senegal
Nor are they home free in Senegal despite the inauguration Tuesday of a brand new tribune of the people as president of Senegal. Bassirou Diomaye Faye, 44, become the youngest African president that day after triumphing with 54 percent of the popular vote against fifteen other contenders, including Prime Minister Amadou Ba, the candidate of the outgoing ruling party and now ex-President Macky Sall. The latter, in office for twelve years, had attempted first to hold off scheduled elections and remain in high office until December. And when that gambit was rebuffed by Senegal's Constitutional Council (Supreme Court), he first tried to maneuver the election into June.
Sall had locked up Diomaye Faye and his patron, Ousmane Sonko, in May, accusing them -- especially Sonko -- of various offenses. But they had long been among his most vociferous critics, Sonko loudly and effectively. Sall released both prisoners only ten days before Senegal's finally scheduled late March election. Sonko could not contest the presidential election himself because of pending sexual assault charges. Sall's administration also charged Sonko with defamation for accusing government ministers of corruption. Sall complained about Sonko inciting violence. But Sonko is now the power behind the new throne, and Senegal's new prime minister.
Both are former tax inspectors. Sonko has had some political experience as a many year critic of Sall and as a long-time prisoner of conscience. But Faye is almost completely inexperienced, never having held political office and never having previously campaigned against a sitting government.
Fortunately, Faye's election upholds Senegal's singularity in West Africa: unlike so many of its neighbors and near-neighbors, Senegal has never endured a coup d'etat. Soldiers have never gained power militarily as they have many times in nearby Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Guinea-Bissau, and -- a little more removed geographically-- Algeria, Benin, Guinea, and the Central African Republic.
Faye promised to cleanse Senegal of graft. He promised to curb the powers of his own office. He wants to renegotiate the oil and gas extraction agreements made by Sall. He also initially said that he favored creating a new national currency substituting it for the CFA franc, a French administered currency (pegged to the Euro) widely employed in former French colonies in West and Equatorial Africa. In his very first speech after winning the presidency Faye promised to govern "with humility." He further indicated that unlike the military rulers in Mali and Burkina Faso, he would not turn to Russia for support.
Faye and Sonko are ready to work together, hand in glove. Sonko is far more experienced in public advocacy and is known for his charisma. Exactly how much influence he will have on his long-time collaborator and close friend is unknown. But just as Cardinal Richelieu advised King Louis XIII, so Sonko as prime minister will be able to call many of the key shots as Senegal evolves from being a creeping autocracy at the end of Sall's rule into a hopeful democratic oasis and outlier in West Africa.
The Kenyan Supreme Court overturned a rigged election in 2017 and requested a new poll. So did the Malawi Supreme Court in 2020 enforce an electoral rerun when President Peter Mutharika, a former law professor in the United States, falsified the original count. The second election confirmed the popular victory of President Lazarus Chakwera.
Senegal's Constitutional Council did the same to halt Sall's chicanery and make Faye's victory possible. Some African courts, fortunately, are still independent, a welcome augury for the continent and for aspiring democrats everywhere.
Now, in Senegal, we must see whether the Faye/Sonko victory presages a real dawn for at least that part of Africa, or a false mirage.
South Africa
South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission ruled that former President Jacob Zuma, 81, convicted earlier of contempt of court in a corruption investigation, could not stand again for election in his country's May 29 election. Zuma recently motivated the forming of uMkhonto weSizwe, a new political party that could draw 10 percent or more of voters away from the long ruling African National Congress.