187 -- Putin's Desperate Drive for Africa

The Lure of Gold

            Putin’s Africa summit in St. Petersburg over the weekend was a bust. Only sixteen heads of state from Africa attended, plus lower-ranking representatives from another twenty nations. Nothing much was accomplished: President Cyril Ramaphosa from South Africa and African Union head and Comoros President Azali Assoumani were unable to persuade Putin to renew the trashed agreement to permit Ukraine to export barley, wheat, and sunflower oil through the Black Sea, as it had been doing since November. Instead, Putin promised free cereal grains to six African countries: the harsh autocracies of Eritrea and Zimbabwe and the Islamist-afflicted states of Burkina Faso, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Somalia.

            The conclave, and Putin’s ranting there about Ukraine’s perfidies, showed how much Putin’s war-mongering Russian psyche and exchequer now depends on seeming diplomatic support in the United Nations and elsewhere from African countries that refuse to condemn the invasion of Ukraine and prefer to claim non-alignment or neutrality regarding a European war. Yet the war is about fundamental freedoms, respect for sovereignty and the rule of law, and the right not to be assaulted by bullies willy-nilly.

            Some African leaders understand that reality.  In a vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in March, twenty-six African states voted in favor, seventeen African entities abstained, eight did not vote, and Eritrea voted against the resolution.  Subsequently, South Africa held naval exercises with Russia and China and may have shipped weapons to Russia under cover of darkness. 

            Yevgeny Prigozhin was at the St. Petersburg meeting.  Despite his abruptly terminated march on Moscow, the nominal head of the notorious Wagner Group was there among the Africans to emphasize how much he and Putin now – more than ever –  are anxious to protect their steady exploitation of African mineral resources, especially gold. Ostensibly, the Wagner Group entered Africa to protect Central Africa’s president and to help Mali battle Islamist insurgents. But, in fact, Wagner (as a front for Putin organized by Prigozhin) is in Africa to funnel riches back to Putin personally and to help fund his beleaguered war effort.

            Among Africa’s largest gold mines are one in the northern Central African Republic, and two in Mali. Prigozhin’s men are busy extracting as much of the gold in all three locations as quickly as possible and shipping it home to Moscow.  In the process, Wagner is attacking African artisanal miners in order to tighten the Russian grip on gold. It has also perpetrated atrocities against Malian and Central African civilians, and has failed to reduce the power and incursions of the al-Qaeda and Islamic State jihadists who pillage and kill throughout Mali’s northern reaches and now assault Burkina Faso and Niger. Formerly, 5,000 French soldiers and American special forces and drones protected Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger from the Islamist militants.

            The Wagnerites want the French and the UN militaries gone from Mali, so that they can amass riches unhindered. They also induced Burkina Faso to send French protectors packing. They may have encouraged last week’s coup in neighboring Niger in order to oust a democratic president friendly to the United States and France. Niger has the world’s seventh-largest deposits of uranium. A major US drone base in northern Niger and 1100 US special forces, plus a strong French brigade, are now compromised.  Suddenly, Niger  -- the only Western redoubt in the Russian-dominated Sahel – is at risk, with Benin and Nigeria potentially threatened by whatever the Russians get up to in Niger. Prigozhin has offered his services.

There is gold also in the Sudan, especially in Darfur, fueling the terrible internecine conflict there between two butchers: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemeti) – and also benefiting the Wagnerites and Russia. Zimbabwe, once an agriculturally prosperous place, is another newish gold supplier; Russia and Belarus are busy cutting deals there in order to take some of the gold proceeds that are not being purloined daily by President Emmerson Mnangagwa and his associates.

The Chinese have largely grabbed control of Zimbabwe’s significant finds of lithium, but Russia is trying to profit along with officials in Zimbabwe’s corrupt government from diamonds, platinum, vanadium, and ferrochrome. Much of that country’s gold, legally and illegally, is shipped to the United Arab Emirates and, in part, to Moscow.  All of these exploitive maneuvers fuel Russia’s war needs and profit people like Prigozhin and Putin personally.

            Zimbabwe is Belarus’ most active African locale. It has replaced John Deere’s supply of tractors and other agricultural equipment with its own, thanks to arrangements with the Mnangagwa government, and is expanding its influence (on behalf of Putin) in that tobacco and maize rich land. Belarus President Alexandre Lukashenko visited Zimbabwe in January – his sole excursion into Africa.

            The Wagner Group is active in Libya, too, where it helps warlord Khalifa Haftar stay in power and profit from petroleum riches and takes a cut. Its foray in northern Mozambique was unsuccessful, possibly because there were no easily exploitable mineral resources that it could control; the wealth there was and is largely offshore in natural gas and petroleum supplies now controlled mostly by France’s Total.

            Objectively, analytically, Russia and its Wagner proxy are gaining wealth and influence in Africa because they have rushed to assist weak and unpopular rulers, like President Faustin-Archange Touadera in Central Africa and Col. Assimi Goita in Mali. They and the UAE are siding with Hemeti’s Rapid Support Forces in Sudan against Burhan’s regular army. Russian-sponsored crowds in Niamey backed the palace guard’s coup in Niger. Yet, Russian “assistance” to Mali, Burkina Faso, and Central Africa has not reduced violence nor protected those places from insurgents more effectively than the French.

            New leaders, and more coups, may be required to remove the Wagnerites and Russia’s pernicious influence in Africa. Both are a menace. President William Ruto of Kenya decried Putin for stopping Ukraine’s grain shipments and the resultant price rises that will affect African consumers. But other African leaders have remained silent.  Just possibly, they will become more vocal when champions of non-alignment like Ramaphosa realize that Putin and Prigozhin are only interested in their own welfare, not Africa’s.

            The invasion of Ukraine now extends collaterally to a swath of Africa, with Russians competing ultimately in ways that mimic Cold War rivalries between East and West.  But the losers, especially if Russia adds to its sway, are the citizens of some of the poorest countries on the planet. Niger’s GDP per capita is only $578. Sahelian dwellers are also being attacked daily by Islamists; if they lose French and American protection, their meager livelihoods and essential freedoms will continue to vanish.  Just as Russia must be compelled to exit Ukraine, Africans should send Wagner mercenaries back to Belarus, or wherever Prigozhin now makes his home.