President Biden doesn’t wish to provoke Putin further. As a result, Washington is refusing to send, or to allow European allies to transfer, F-16 aircraft to assist Ukraine in its battle against invading Russian forces. Russia has more modern fighters and bombers in the air than Ukraine, compelled as the latter is to do its very best with older Soviet-manufactured craft. Thus far, Ukraine has managed to keep those earlier models flying by dint of clever repairs and sheer guts. But if Ukraine is to have any hope this spring of pushing its enemies back toward Russia, or of taking Crimea, Ukraine must gain control of the skies.
The Pentagon also says that training pilots to fly F-16s will take too much time. But Ukraine now has more pilots than available aircraft, so tutoring could occur while the war winds on. The F-16s need smoother runways than Ukraine presently has available. But the landing surfaces could be improved and various temporary accommodations contrived. New F-16s could be serviced, when necessary, in Poland and Romania. Ukraine has only succeeded in holding off the Russians to date by inventing quick fixes and making the most of ingenious ad hoc solutions.
The Mig -29s that Ukraine now flies can survive the rough aerodromes currently employed. So can Swedish Gripens, a well-tested, versatile, maneuverable, and more modern fighter, but there are only 126 or so available in Europe, mostly at home in Sweden, which needs them to counter Russian forays; there are thousands of F-16s already flying in Europe and ready.
Ukraine says that it can only beat back the Russians in the east and south of its country if it can achieve air superiority or at least parity. Russia today can employ five times as many fighter aircraft than Ukraine (or possibly ten times, given the losses that Ukraine has been suffering). Russia’s planes have longer-range radar capability and better air-to-air missiles than their Ukrainian counterparts. Most of all, without F-16s, Russia would be able to send wave after wave of bombers deep into Ukraine. Ukraine’s air force has performed wondrously so far, given its comparative weakness. But time is running out. Ukraine urgently needs materiel help.
President Biden fears that the Ukrainians could start attacking bases in Russia, and precipitate World War III, with its feared nuclear overtones. But Ukraine cannot reliably reclaim its sovereignty and its national territory without greater combat potential in the air. Otherwise, Russia will be able relentlessly to destroy Ukrainian cities and towns from the air and kill innocent civilians in apartment blocks well away from the war front.
Moreover, if and when the Ukrainian military launches a much-touted spring offensive, it desperately needs abundant air cover. Just having anti-aircraft batteries is insufficient, especially when its supply of Soviet-era surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) is running low.
American dominance in the air protected Iraqi Kurdistan during the war there and enabled its two provinces to survive the mayhem of hostilities in Iraq. Western air capabilities in NATO’s Europe have long made any attack on any alliance member almost unthinkable, thanks to the modern capabilities of F-16s. If Ukraine is going to turn the tides of war in its favor, avoiding a perpetuation of the long slog of combat that has persisted since November, it requires the ability to deliver heightened pressure against Putin’s team.
Ukraine has the will to win, which Russian troops lack. Its soldiers seek victory now, and still possess an appropriate moral righteousness and a belief in themselves and their country. Thanks to the remarkable leadership qualities of President Volodymyr Zelensky, comedian turned Churchillian statesman, morale among mud-caked and trench stuck front line combatants and their civilian supporters remains formidable. But the troops are tired, casualties are high (on both sides) and a major breakthrough is necessary soon if an end to conflagration is ever going to be possible.
Zelensky argues that new aircraft will maximize Ukraine’s chances of dealing devastating blows to Russia. Thanks to supplies from the West, it has boosted its ability to defend itself from air attacks, shell Russian contingents with advanced howitzers, and employ modern tanks to deter Russian aggressive moves and support its own offenses. But too little progress can be made without strong support from the air. It is past time for Washington to relent (as it has done time and again throughout the cycles of the war in Ukraine) and to give Ukraine the air power that it needs to end the war – or at least to give Ukraine a bigger seat at the ultimate bargaining table.