150 - A Year of Ruthless War: To What End?

            Putin and his Russian legions invaded Ukraine a year ago tomorrow.  Much, but not all, of Ukraine is still free.  As President Biden declared in Warsaw, “Kyiv stands.” 

            When his unprovoked, imperialistic war commenced, Putin planned to be in Ukraine’s capital in a few days. Valiant Ukrainian defenders, many improvised, and egregious Russian military cockups soon repulsed the opening assaults, revealing unspeakable Russian-perpetrated atrocities.

            A year later, the war has become a slog, with Russians and Ukrainians dying daily and much of the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine destroyed by Russian artillery and air bombardments.  Ukraine is largely forbidden by its NATO suppliers from taking its reprisals into Russia. Thus, because of the fear of Russian unleashing of nuclear arms, Ukraine largely fights with one arm tied behind its back, and – for the most part – Russian civilians and Russian bases largely shelter within Russia without fear.

            Thus, this is a very unequal war with the defenders of freedom being restrained from striking any conclusive blows on their enemy. Yet, those are the terms on which the U. S. and much of the rest of NATO has, at first reluctantly but now with greater panache and determination, delivered howitzers, antitank missiles, antiaircraft batteries, abundant ammunition, and much more to Ukraine’s fighting forces. Tanks are coming, too slowly, and fighter aircraft may arrive, in time.

            What, if at all, has the invasion of smaller nation done for Putin and Russia?

·      It has demonstrated, for all to see, that Putin wants to think of himself as Peter the Great reborn, or a second Stalin.  His KGB origins stand out.

·      Putin’s megalomania, filled with narcissistic desire, is overwhelming.

·      So is his contempt for human suffering, even among his own soldiers.

·      British intelligence officials estimate that Russian troops have suffered 200,000 casualties, with 70,000 dying – an immense loss even for a large country such as Russia.

·      The Russian army is now seen as much less potent, and much less well-commanded, than the Pentagon and NATO once assumed. Battlefield errors have been startling.

·      Putin is pushing mostly little trained recruits into a slaughter reminiscent of the Somme standoff in World War I.

·      Putin has succeeded in uniting both NATO and Europe against him, Turkey and Hungary being the quasi-exceptions. Indeed, NATO is now more formidable than at any time before Putin’s invasion.

·      Opinion polls show that 77 percent of Britons, 71 percent of Americans, and 65 percent of Europeans oppose Russia’s war, blame Putin, and revile him.

·      Russia has forfeited its once solid export markets in Europe for natural gas and petroleum, and also for less significant natural resources and products.

·      Putin and Russia, once part of the G8 and the G20, are no longer welcome.

·      Putin has also managed to exacerbate hunger in the world, mostly first by preventing normal exports of wheat, barley, and oil seeds from Ukraine, and now slowing down those exports. His drones and missiles also attack Ukraine’s remaining ports, and hinder farming.

·      But, critically, so far Russia itself has not revolted against Putin’s war and his conscripting of hundreds of thousands as cannon fodder at the war’s edge.

·      Putin’s intimidation and coercion at home has obviously curtailed or exiled would-be critics. The Russian media are muzzled, and opponents of the war are quickly shackled.

·      There are not as yet the kinds of protests on the home front that would oust Putin and end a war that drags on and may continue for yet another fruitless year.

·      Putin’s generals are not yet rebelling. Only pro-war would-be militants on the far right are criticizing failures of execution.

·      China has not abandoned Russia. Indeed, it has drawn closer, if carefully.

·      What once was the “non-aligned” world has resumed its non-alignment, just as Putin gambled that it would.  India, South Africa, and Brazil (all belonging to BRICS) have refused to blame Putin for the invasion and are buying whatever they can get from Russia by way of discounted petroleum and weapons.

·      Over and over, Putin has had to recalibrate his objectives from an easy march on Kyiv to a war of attrition on the eastern front, together with a likely massive, renewed thrust into the heart of southern Ukraine sometime soon.  But that is not necessarily a likely winner, either.

How about Ukraine and its allies?

·      President Volodymyr Zelensky has emerged from a comedic chrysalis into consummate leadership status.  Indeed, he effectively enunciates why winning the war against what President Biden has called “autocracy” is essential if the world’s fundamental freedoms are to be sustained.

·      Zelensky, and the cause he represents, reminds us that the rule of law and respect for fundamental sovereignty can only be upheld if Ukraine retains its independence amid the Russian onslaught.

·      Ukrainian pride in its culture and language has been elevated by Putin’s false claims that Ukraine is a fake place full of left-over Nazis.

·      Ukraine’s nationalism has never been more pronounced.

·      Emboldened by Zelensky, Ukrainian morale is high, and its soldiers want to fight for their country.

·      The reality of course is that Ukraine has lost 20,000 or so fighters in combat, with wounded and maimed another 80,000. Civilians have been whipsawed.  Millions have been uprooted. Perhaps one third of the country’s buildings have been destroyed.  And there are more losses to come.

·      Those concepts have unleashed a vast outpouring of material and financial support for Ukraine’s battle against Russia.

·      Neighbors are helping neighbors, especially those like the Bucharest Nine who are former Soviet satellites and fear any advance of Russian imperialism.

·      President Biden’s resolve and resilience has belied his chronological age and has demonstrated an ability to strengthen the unity of NATO’s nations.

·      President Biden’s repeated promise to “stand with you, for as long as it takes” is a mobilizing cry that echoes President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s determination to stand with Britain and France against Hitler and take on Japan as well during World War II.

·      Holding Russia off sends the right lesson to China over Taiwan.  If Washington falters or relaxes its opposition to Russian imperial advances, China will pounce.  If not, and especially if Putin eventually is pummeled, Beijing will take careful note.

There is no end in sight to the war – no easy or clear path to the negotiations that will eventually occur to halt the invasion.  Ukraine and its backers are attempting to strengthen their defensive position so that any negotiations occur with Ukraine formidable, and not supplicant.  How that can best occur is not yet evident: if a further Russian massed attack on the east and south occurs before the Leopard II tanks arrive and before Ukraine is better equipped to defend itself, repulsing Russia may prove difficult. But if the new tanks arrive, and there is abundant ammunition, then Ukraine – with better morale and something existential to fight for – may be able to turn the war decisively against Russia.

            As so many astute American generals and former NATO commanders have made clear, Ukraine’s courageous forces desperately need re-supplies of lethal weapons and their accoutrements. Then, as several former NATO military commanders have urged, Ukraine can again attack the Kerch Strait Bridge at the opening of the Sea of Azov, launch missile attacks on Crimea, punish the Russians in the Donbas, and destroy drone and bomber bases in eastern Ukraine or even in nearby Russia.  NATO and the West need to punish Russia as thoroughly as possible to propel Putin, or some replacement, to the bargaining table.  The war has gone on far too long, for immoral purposes.

PS  -  Nigeria’s election tomorrow is worth watching closely. When 97 million Nigerians go to the polls Saturday they may just possibly breathe fresh life into national politics if Peter Obi receives the kinds of votes that pollsters predict. Nigeria, and Africa’s, future depends on the result.

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Overcoming the Oppressors

**** Subscribers have asked about my new book, a study of the freeing of southern Africa first from white colonial and white South African domination and, more recently, from indigenous African corrupt autocracies. Overcoming the Oppressors: White and Black in Southern Africa has just been published by Oxford University Press.  Available in your local bookstores.