139 - Getting Ukraine the Arms it Needs
We need “to put Ukraine in the strongest possible position when a negotiating table emerges so that there can be a just and durable peace.” Those were the words, Tuesday, of U. S. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, voicing the obvious. But the unanswered question is “exactly how?”
NATO defense ministers met yesterday in Belgium to try to provide some answers, with further discussions tomorrow and a broader conclave in Germany on Friday with representatives from additional nations mobilized to support the big battle against Putin’s Russia. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky Monday urged allies to “speed up decision-making.” On Wednesday, speaking from Kyiv to the businessmen, financiers, and diplomats meeting in Davos, Switzerland, he was more direct: “The time the free world to think is used by the terrorist state to kill.”
It is clear to everyone involved that to move beyond the war’s current stalemated winter slog, Ukraine needs vast resupplies of ammunition, plus more than the three Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries that are, credibly, on their way from Washington and The Hague. Fortunately, too, the Pentagon long ago pre-positioned more than 1 million artillery shells in military warehouses in Israel and South Korea to be used to combat potential flare-ups in the Middle East or the Korean Peninsula. Those 155 mm. projectiles can now be put to good use in Ukraine, where Ukraine is firing artillery rounds at high rates to maintain momentum along the eastern and southern fronts. A Pentagon spokesperson said that he was confident that the U. S. could “maintain the readiness levels that are vital to defending our nation,” while simultaneously shipping munitions to Ukraine.
In addition to artillery materiel and reinforcements, Ukraine needs heavily armored tanks to overcome Russian resistance along the 800-mile eastern front. Britain is now sending fourteen big tanks, but both the U.S. and Germany are dithering about sending their own tanks to Ukraine. The tanks that would make an immediate difference, apparently, are German Leopard II tanks, of which there are an abundance both in Germany and nearby Europe. But the German chancellor, fearful of thrusting Germany too directly in Putin’s sights, has so far been reluctant to permit the transfer of Leopards to Ukraine. But that transfer could be announced tomorrow, motivated by Britain’s shift of its own equipment and – possibly – big nudges from Blinken and U. S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III.
The next major clashes between armies of west and east could come as early as next month. Russia will attempt to regain lost territory and to make the remainder of Ukraine even more uncomfortable than now – all, as Blinken says – to position Russia strongly on the eve of possible negotiations.
With numerous new heavily armored tanks, however, Ukraine could turn what is now a lumbering war of attrition decisively toward its advantage. Ukraine is seeking up to 300 battle-tested tanks. If the Russians remain comparatively weak, pending the arrival of newly trained recruits and the arrival of refurbished or renewed battlefield equipment, Ukraine could deploy both its newly arrived lightly armored Bradley personnel carriers (with 25 mm guns), the British Challenger II tanks, and any Leopard tanks that German Chancellor Olaf Sholz waves forward to change the course of the war in Ukraine’s favor. There is even new talk of encouraging Ukraine to target Russian bases in Crimea.
Ukrainian officers and soldiers have already demonstrated their adaptability and their ability to be trained quickly to use new armaments and to modify Western methods to their own, now special, theater of warfare.
The new tanks, replacing at least some of the worn out or damaged Soviet-style tanks that Ukraine has been using to hold off Russian advances, are undeniably more formidable as well as more up-to-date. The Leopards, now a third-generation battle tank originally developed in the 1970s, are the standard operating tank of thirteen European armed forces as well as Canada, Turkey, and a few nations in South America and Asia. Several thousand are available in Europe alone. Canada’s 100 or so are not needed at home; Ukraine could make good use of them.
The tank has seen action in Afghanistan, in Kosovo, and in Syria. Powered by two large turbo-diesel engines, it is armed with a 120 mm cannon and coaxial machine guns. It has advanced night vision and thermal imaging capability, laser rangefinders, and digital fire control systems. The Leopard II possesses the ability to engage shifting targets even while advancing rapidly on metal treads over rough terrain. Fully armored, it weighs 55 tons and can move forward at about 32 mph, backwards at half that speed.
According to a columnist in Toronto’s Globe & Mail, “The advanced sensors and targeting systems of a Leopard II preclude any need to fight at close quarters. On the battlefield, it is an apex predator, which is why 21 countries operate them.”
The Challenger II is another third-generation tank put into service in the 1990s and deployed by British forces in Iraq. It has a 120 mm cannon and two coaxial machine guns. It weighs 75 tons and has a maximum on-road speed of 37 mph, making it more maneuverable and much faster than the modern Leopards. Off-road it can still tread along at 25 mph.
The West’s urgent task is to transfer quantities of tanks, already in Europe, to the Ukraine armed forces, together with spares and repair capabilities. Ukrainians will need to be trained, too. But time is of the essence if Putin’s Russia is going to be turned back before it is again prepared to attack Ukraine’s outmanned but not outclassed defenders. Furthermore, modern tanks will be able to shell Russia’s older tanks and boost Ukrainian morale amid this winter of literal darkness. It is past time to help Ukraine take the offensive.