122 - Give Thanks to Ukraine, and Saving Civilian Lives
As we gave thanks yesterday that the Republic at home was (so far) holding and that constitutionalism had narrowly prevailed at the national level and in some American states, did we give appropriate appreciation to Ukraine for protecting our freedom? Ukrainians, with bombs raining down on even their western cities, are sacrificing power, light, heat, and water so that we can remain free and comfortable. For nine long months Ukrainians have physically been preventing Russians from destroying their sovereignty and their very existence as an outpost of freedom and democracy.
But they have done so at a great cost of human lives, both soldier and civilian. The West, and particularly the United States, have helped to sustain Ukraine’s war effort almost from the day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February. So have neighboring nations such as Estonia and Poland and more distant ones such as Australia and Canada. Yet only now are air defense systems arriving. Only now does Ukraine begin to have artillery and ammunition sufficient to begin to hold their own or even to erode Russian security far behind today’s front lines.
Yet Ukraine desperately needs far more war materiel, and it needs such assistance urgently. Timothy Garton Ash of the University of Oxford has made the case eloquently,
“The most immediate military need is air defence, not least to counter further attacks on civilian infrastructure. Multiple rocket launch systems like the U.S.-made HIMARS have been a key to Ukraine’s military success, and more are required to deplete Russia’s still massive conventional artillery. If Ukraine is to recapture its own territory – and as the Russian-controlled area is reduced in size, the battle will become more concentrated – it must have modern tanks like the German-made Leopard 2. Beyond this, it also needs generators, engineers to help mend its power stations, medical supplies, and a large amount of financial aid just to prevent its economy from collapsing.” The requirements listed in the last sentence are as essential as those mooted in Ash’s opening lines.
Ukraine is gaining ground against Russia in the Kherson area to the south and in sections of the eastern front, especially around Kharkiv in the north. But it is badly losing the other war. Russia, using cruise missiles, outdated ship-to-shore and anti-aircraft projectiles, and inexpensive and slow flying Irainian-drones is pulverizing Ukraine’s electrical generating and supplying facilities throughout the country. Successes there, and they continue, give Putin several ways to make the daily lives of Ukrainians miserable. As the harsh white frosts of winter turn the killing fields of the country frigid so, Putin believes, Ukraine will be compelled to sue for peace – on his terms.
Thus, Ukraine absolutely requires for its own survival, and for the entire Western defense of freedom and of comity among nations, weaponry capable of halting the missile assaults and the kamikaze drone launches. As we have implored many times before, the West should empower Ukraine to reach those behind-the-lines bases or to do so itself. Several sorties of Western aircraft could degrade Russian offensive abilities, thus sparing Ukrainian civilians everywhere from bombardment, and letting their vital electrical infrastructure be repaired and sustained. Otherwise, despite supposed shortages of missiles and drones, Russia will continue to destroy the civilian underpinnings of everyday life.
We do not want Ukraine to give in. Nor will they. Winning the ground war and eventually perhaps pushing Russia out of all of Ukraine (a fabulous fantasy in March, now a reasonable reality as we approach the edge of December) depends on surviving a harsh winter in reasonable warmth, with lights on and water available. Those desiderata are almost unattainable unless – to repeat – the West helps Ukraine eliminate the bombing threat that comes from afar – from inside Russia, from ships in the Black Sea, and from Crimea.
There are at least two key reasons why eradicating Russian launch capabilities is critical:
1) There will be no end of war and civilian misery in Ukraine so long as Putin thinks that he can achieve some of what he wants by hitting Ukraine’s infrastructure from afar.
2) It is time to make war more costly for Russia. So far, Russia has been able to attack Ukraine with impunity, knowing that the West will leave its offensive capabilities free from attack for fear of widening the war and triggering a nuclear counter-offensive.
But will eliminating launch capabilities risk triggering a wider conflict? Ash’s response, which seems right, is: Putin “already has. And he might go further, conceivably even across the tactical nuclear threshold. But no course of action in war is without risk. In the long run, the risks that would flow for the entire world from a victory for naked armed aggression would be much greater.”
Furthermore, the longer we let the nuclear threat stay our hand, the harder it is for Ukraine to remain a bulwark of freedom in the world. Ukraine’s recovery is our survival.
Quoting President Volodymyr Zelensky when he addressed the Halifax Security Forum this week: “Immoral consequences will only lead to more blood.”
Putin is severely weakened. Russians are beginning to understand the dangerous evils of his pursuits. This is the time to take the defense of Ukraine to its logical extreme –before they and we become exhausted by an interminable war.
If Putin escalates, the West together has the capability of countering a nuclear initiative. China and India have told Russia that the use of atomic weapons is unacceptable. So has the West.
Now is the appropriate time not to invade Russia but singularly to prevent him from continuing to shoot missiles at and send drones into Ukraine.