116 - Carnage and Resiliency: The Lessons of the Midterms
The lessons of the striking midterm elections (and full results will not be in for days) are stark. The following are mostly what I think we learned or need to realize:
The Democratic Process: A Success
· Our democratic process survived. People of disparate backgrounds and beliefs voted. The counting proceeded normally. Our democracy showed that it is still resilient.
· President Biden said yesterday that “the American people have spoken. They have proven once again that democracy is who we are.”
· “Biden appears to have had the best midterm performance of any president in twenty years, with his party avoiding the enormous House losses of his predecessors and flipping a key Senate seat in Pennsylvania.”
· Many qualified candidates won, in some cases substantially.
· Several unqualified opportunists were defeated in key states.
· Voters rejected Trump-endorsed candidates for secretary of state in Michigan, Minnesota, and New Mexico, The Michigan legislature may flip Democratic. But the Wisconsin legislature stays solidly red.
· Other down ballot races, including governorships, were much more competitive than expected, with important hard-accomplished victories for Democrats in Wisconsin and Michigan.
· In three blue states abortion rights were backed; in red-state Kentucky, an anti-abortion constitutional amendment was defeated. Pro-abortion sentiments helped win Congressional elections in Virginia and elsewhere.
· There was no red wave, not even much of a pink one.
A Divided Nation
· Yet, despite the very good news, we are more divided as a people than ever before. A nineteenth century British prime minister wrote compelling about “two nations.” We are now that place, still deeply disharmonious.
· Trump and his ilk have succeeded mightily in cleaving us apart. Given the tightness of so many contests, and the blaring vituperation of so many of the campaigns, no matter how persuasively and energetically President Biden attempts to forge consensus and create bipartisan endeavors, there is too much venom and outright hatred, especially on the far right, to hope that the kinds of political togetherness that President Obama sought in his famous 2004 address to the Democratic Convention (and as he exemplified throughout his presidency and still) can now be achieved or anticipated.
· Yes, a few of the bomb-throwing election deniers lost their races Tuesday. But a legion of others was elected despite wildly anti-democratic espousals. So many lied and impugned their way to victory that much of the entire basis of our electoral compact of sharing has been discarded, being replaced by zero-sum extremism.
· There were notable victories against Trumpist conspiracy-spouters in places like New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. But think how close so many of the races were.
· In an era of high inflation – always dangerous for the party in power --we have miraculously stemmed a rout, miraculously kept the heads of a goodly number of intelligent and honest politicians above water, but barely. That is all to the good. But the nation’s future is still heavily at risk.
· We can also cheer the defeat of some wackos, but more than 150 deniers were elected at all levels.
· Despite the palpable absence of a red wave, sensible, middle-of-the-road democrats lost their Congressional seats. Whether fed by false information or imbued with identity and status revenge, Republican voters ousted moderate consensus-seeking incumbent Democratic representatives in Virginia, New Jersey, New York, and elsewhere. These losses were critical for Democratic control of the House of Representatives and were not just the by-product of a mid-term election (when incumbents are always at risk).
· Many will argue that Trump’s signal failure to install endorsed acolytes will fatefully diminish his hold on the Republican Party and his team of arsonists. Perhaps, is my take. There is still no sign that Rockefeller and Baker Republicans have any sway and there are no indications that the slightly less apocalyptic wing of today’s Republicans can reclaim their party.
· In my view, the Trumpists were much more competitive with terrible candidates than they should have been. To echo Speaker Nancy Pelosi, imagine how very close to victory so many of “those people” were – and still are. Please contemplate the coming run off between a semi-literate, prevaricating, anti-abortionist who has paid for abortions and faked his past, and a very upright incumbent preacher of integrity? Who could have imagined a virtual tie between someone whom Hillary Clinton might have called a “deplorable” and a clean-living reverend?
· President Biden is going to find it very difficult to govern without a supportive House of Representatives. It will be almost impossible to craft successful legislation and, conceivably, to keep supplying Ukraine. There will be exhausting and ultimately senseless battles over Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid, attacks on the Internal Revenue Service, and rounds and rounds of useless harassing investigations of the kinds of targets that Trump and others think will show well on Fox News. We are in for disconcerting and frustrating times on Capitol Hill. Americans and all world citizens will be the worse for the malicious games to be played.
The Options Going Forward
· Given these depressing prognostications, what are the Biden administration’s options?
· Not to be passive, for one. President Biden and his team need to take advantage wherever they can of voter comparative failures on Tuesday to hold Republicans to account. The failure of any red wave to crest should embolden Democrats to speak truth to power on every issue everywhere. On Ukraine, for example, the Democrats should agree to no compromises. Likewise, on all kinds of fiscal issues. And, when and wherever they can, Democrats need to assert integrity and intelligence against what are bound to be the older (1950s) McCarthyite tactics of threat and calumny. If only Attorney General Garland would get a move on and indict Trump for attempting to steal classified documents, the criminality of his failures could be tested in a timely manner.
· In looking forward to 2024, the Biden administration and the entire Democratic establishment (progressives included) should after the midterm elections appreciate that Americans and citizens across the globe expect governments to keep their persons secure and safe. President Biden needs to focus on funding the police, on cracking down on all kinds of crime, on publicly strengthening the FBI, and on speaking early and often about reducing criminality and curbing and coping with insecurity. Bail reform might be a technical issue, but in at least four critical New York (losing) Congressional races the specter of going easy on bailing predators and perpetrators cost Democratic candidates seats.
· Controlling violence and assault weapons, plus all guns, is another obvious key issue.
· So is immigration. This issue is full of dis- and misinformation but, as I wrote months ago, it must not go unaddressed. Democrats lost votes everywhere, but especially among Latino voters near the borders, because of President Biden’s perceived (not real) weakness in this area. There is an argument (which Canada is exemplifying) that we positively need more immigrants, not fewer. But no one in Washington is making that argument loudly. Immigration, like crime, is a wedge issue.
· So is inflation and gas prices, but President Biden’s administration is doing what it can. But now it needs to articulate its plans and to pursue lower prices more aggressively.
In Sum:
We will have fuller results from the remaining still undecided states like Arizona and Nevada after you receive this Newsletter Thursday. In December, the Georgia senatorial runoff will occur. So what I am writing today is bound to be superseded in some small part by the final results. Yet, we already know indisputably – and thankfully – that our democracy is both resilient in the face of major challenges and weaker and less robust than it has ever been. Thin victories and slim losses show that the blue wave mostly matched the red wave, but the blues were nearly all candidates of objective quality, many of the reds misfits, opportunists, and changelings running on the coat tails of one of the least moral leaders anywhere. There is much work to be done by better leaders and ourselves to steady and then to right the ship of state as it attempts to cruise immensely turbulent waters.