10 - Stopping the Killing Fields

            If only Russia did not have 6,000 nuclear warheads and the ability to launch them on supersonic missiles toward the United States. Likewise, if only Putin felt that he had been treated as a leader of true global importance, and that Russia’s stature in the world had not fallen dismally from the heights it enjoyed during the Soviet era.  Combined, the private agenda of revenge and status redress, when reinforced by an apocalyptic arsenal that can (probably) be unleashed on personal whim, makes ending the assault on Ukraine not only difficult, but full of human unknowns and known unknowns.

            President Biden was able, yesterday, to promise $800 million worth of new anti-tank missiles, shoulder-fired anti-aircraft weapons, small arms, and other military resources to Ukraine’s embattled legions.  He also echoed an obvious charge leveled in this newsletter last week: he called Putin a war criminal, having earlier said that Putin was a “killer.” Both accurate accusations, especially the first, infuriated Putin; he then lashed out against Russians who behave traitorously by speaking favorably of the West, and by fleeing Russia for more secure shores. Goodness knows what will happen to brave Marina Ovsyannikova, who condemned the war on Russian television Tuesday night.

            Because of those 6,000 nukes, President Biden has been reluctant to go further, to engage the Russians directly (instead of indirectly via courageous Ukrainians), or to prevent Russia from ruling the skies over Ukraine.  President Biden has said “no” to World War III.  At the same time, knowing Putin’s proclivities, yesterday Biden drew a red line against the use of chemical or biological weapons in Ukraine.  Unlike President Obama’s red line in Bashar el-Assad’s Syria, the Ukrainian red line is one that the United States will have to act upon. If crossed, we will be thrust into World War III, willy-nilly.

            Sanctions are working.  But they cannot work fast enough to save Ukrainians from death and starvation. There is more to be done to gum up Russia’s finances as that country goes broke and cannot meet its debt obligations.  There are more oil tankers to blockade and exports of all kinds to ban (as these columns have said).  Spain seized a second yacht belong to a Putin acolyte and oligarch yesterday, and there are many more yachts (including Putin’s own) to sequester.  Turning the oligarchs as a privileged group of several dozen kleptocrats against Putin might have an impact.  But none of these economic obstacles will sway Putin quickly enough, if ever. As a despot, Putin is killing wantonly in Ukraine to advance his own sense of self, not (despite what he says) to regain anything real for mother Russia.

            The West (and the U. S.) failed to push back effectively when Putin sent his troops into (from his point of view) obstreperous Georgia.  We did not prevent him from throwing Russia’s weight around in Syria, flattening Aleppo in the process. Nor did we do anything significant when he brazenly took Crimea and planted disguised Russian servicemen in Donbass and Luhansk.  Naturally, invading a Ukraine that had the democratic temerity to toss his nominee out of Kyiv in 2010 resulted in the invasion of Crimea and then, encouraged by Trump and Trump’s dangerous and addled followers, Putin saw an opportunity to complete his long-planned re-incorporation of Ukraine. 

With President Biden declaring that no American troops would fight in Ukraine or send aircraft to patrol its skies, Putin pounced.  Admittedly, he thought that he would in but a few days roll unscathed into Kyiv. Thanks to the valiant leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky  (as we discussed yesterday), Ukrainians have fought back bravely, cleverly, and without let up.  Even after Russia bombed a theater in besieged Mariupol sheltering about1,000, Ukrainians continue to oppose Putin’s conscripts.  Putin has managed to unite Ukrainians, even the 35 percent of the battered land’s populace who are Russians by heritage and language.  And Putin has united NATO and rallied the free world against him and for Ukraine.

            Putin is prepared to inflict whatever pain it takes to subjugate Ukraine. Backed into a corner of his own making, he is nevertheless unlikely to declare victory and go home before Ukraine is pulverized.  There are no indications that he contemplates cutting his own losses. That would be humiliation for a determined sociopath. Furthermore, backing down in the face of battlefield difficulties and pressure from sanctions would seriously jeopardize his position and power. So, even if it takes weeks more to flatten Ukraine into submission, he will do it. 

Only Putin’s generals, who may want to save their own skins, can hold him back. Yet, there is no evidence, so far, that Putin has forfeited their loyalty and obedience.  Nor, given repression in Russian cities by the state security service, will Russian citizens be able to rise up against his war in response to pressure from sanctions.

            Imposing a no-fly zone above a country as large as Ukraine is technically difficult, especially if we were to refrain from removing Russian and Belarusian anti-aircraft defense systems on the ground. Slow flying air refueling tankers would prove easy targets and our fighters and bombers would need frequent refueling to stay aloft. So President Biden will not want to intervene in that manner until the U.S. and its allies are ready for all-out war.

            President Zelensky has just declared that Ukraine will not be able to join NATO or Europe. That should be sufficient to end the war. But Putin now wants more.  Perhaps we can reach his generals, who might be ready. Or perhaps there will be protests by mothers in Russia whose sons are being lost.  Otherwise, on this twenty-second day of unprovoked war, the killing fields remain strewn with corpses.